Monday, September 30, 2013

Are We Heading for Another Housing Bubble?

The U.S. housing market increased 18.4 percent from March 2012 to July 2013 according to this article from the New York Times. I highly recommend reading the article to gain some insight into housing market trends in the United States. If you don't have time, here are the main points of the article:

  • When corrected for inflation, all house values eventually go down over time.
  • Despite things like limited land, the aging of a houses almost always leads to a drop in value. Who is going to want a 30 year old house when they can get a new house from the development down the road?
  • Real-Estate is not always the best investment for long-term holders.
  • The type of thinking that housing is the best investment is ultimately what leads to the housing market bubbles. 
  • Conditions of rapidly increasing home values like we are seeing now are similar to the previous housing bubble in 2008. This could or could not lead to another housing bubble.  

When deciding whether to move or not, many people look to the housing market to decide if it is a good to move onto something else. Since the market is on the rise now, it may be a good idea to sell and call the moving company before the bubble bursts again. This true especially if your house is around the ten-fifteen year old mark, because if the bubble burst your house is going to be older with more problems. It also will become outdated as new houses designed in different styles begin to enter your area.  

It is important to put this on all in perspective though. Frequently, economist predictions more often than not are actually wrong even though they are supposed to be the experts. It is just too hard to forecast all of the factors that contribute to our markets even if it is your job. Ultimately you should do what is best for you and your family. There is nothing wrong with getting while the getting is good by trying to sell your home when the market is up. 

Predicting the economy is sort of like trying to finish a jigsaw puzzle when a lot of the pieces are missing. 
  

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